Dollar Declines On Renewed Trade Tensions Fears

Dollar Declines On Renewed Trade Tensions Fears


On Thursday, the Greenback drifted lower vs. a basket of major currencies and touched a one-week low against the yen, hampered by renewed traders’ concerns over global trade tensions and weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales figure. In terms of data, the U.S. retail sales unexpectedly declined in February for a third month, pointing to a slowdown in the U.S. economic growth in the first quarter. On the release front, traders are awaiting the U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, which is expected to hit 228k from 231k.

  • The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down by 0.03% at 89.72.


The Single currencies rose slightly by 0.02%, vs. the USD to settle at $1.2370, thanks to weak USD.  Meanwhile, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the ECB needs further evidence that inflation is rising towards its target, but is growing more confident it is on track to do so. No major reports are due from the Euro-zone today.


Against the JPY, the USD fell by 0.23%, to settle at ¥106.07, as dollar failed to manage its gains due to worries over global trade tensions.


Early on Thursday, Gold prices edged up, as worries over trade tensions and weaker-than-expected U.S. retail sales figure weighed on financial markets. An official data showed that the U.S. retail sales unexpectedly declined in February for a third month by 0.1%, compared to the estimate of a 0.3% growth. Gold Futures - Apr 18 (GCJ8), rose slightly by 0.02%, to settle at $1,325.80.


Earlier today, Oil prices held steady spurred by strong global demand, but capped by the sharp climb in the U.S. crude oil production that is weakening efforts led by OPEC and non-OPEC oil giant Russia to cut supplies and support markets. According to the International Energy Agency, the U.S. crude output is expected to rise above 11 million bpd later this year, taking the top spot from Russia. Crude Oil WTI Futures - Crude Oil WTI Futures - Apr 18 (CLJ8) fell as much as 0.02%, to settle at $60.95, and Brent Oil Futures - May 18 (LCOK8) was down by 0.05% at $64.86.

The most important economic events:

  • USD Import Price Index ex Petroleum (MoM) (Feb): (GMT 12:30) – Medium – Forecast (0.3%) – Previous (0.5%).
  • USD Export Price Index (YoY) (Feb): (GMT 12:30) – Medium – Forecast (N/A) – Previous (3.4%).
  • USD Initial Jobless Claims (Mar 10): (GMT 12:30) – Medium – Forecast (228k) – Previous (231k).
  • USD Net Long-term TIC Flows (Jan): (GMT 12:30) – Medium – Forecast (N/A) – Previous ($27.3b).

The prices and news mentioned in this outlook are absolutely no guarantee of future market performance and do not represent the view of ICM Capital Limited. Financial markets can move in either direction causing profits to be made or complete losses to be incurred by the trader. Each trader must decide for themselves what their risk appetite is and ensure that correct risk management procedures are in place before placing any trades.

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