Dollar Declines as Trade War worries Dominate


On Wednesday, the Greenback failed to recover and declined further vs. a basket of major currencies as another resignation from Trump’s administration strengthened the pro-tariff forces and shocked market players’ confidence in the U.S. dollar. Gary Cohn has resigned from his job as Donald Trump's top economic adviser due to disputes over Trump's tariff plan. Elsewhere, Eyes will be on Bank of Canada Rate Decision, which is expected to hit 1.25%.

  • The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, was down by 0.03% at 89.53, the lowest since February 26.


The Single currencies rose slightly by 0.17% vs. the USD, to settle at $1.2425, thanks to weak USD. No major reports are due from the Euro-zone today.


The Sterling pound fell slightly by 0.04, to settle at $1.3881.


Against the JPY, the USD fell by 0.38%, to settle at ¥105.73. The safe haven yen gained ground as signals were unclear whether Trump would enforce his tariff plans. Additionally, traders are awaiting Japan’s Q4 GDP data that are due tomorrow morning.


Early on Wednesday, Gold prices settled close to one-and-a-half week highs, as traders turned to safe-haven assets as sustained worries over a potential global trade war continued to weigh heavily on the USD. Gold Futures - Apr 18 (GCJ8), fell slightly by 0.11%, to settle at $1,333.70.


Early on Wednesday, Oil prices failed to manage its gains and declined, due to concerns that a trade war is on the horizon. Additionally, oil prices declined as the U.S. Crude stockpiles rose by 5.661 million barrels in the week to 426.880 million barrels. On the release front, traders are awaiting the U.S. Crude Oil Inventories (MAR 2), which is expected to hit 1712k from 3019k. Crude Oil WTI Futures - Crude Oil WTI Futures - Apr 18 (CLJ8) fell as much as 0.77%, to settle at $62.12, and Brent Oil Futures - May 18 (LCOK8) was down by 0.76% at $65.29.

The most important economic events:

  • CAD Bank of Canada Rate Decision (MAR 7): (GMT 15:00) – Important – Forecast (1.25%) – Previous (1.25%).
  • JPY Trade Balance - BOP Basis (Yen) (JAN): (GMT 23:50) – Medium – Forecast (-¥691.0b) – Previous (¥538.9b).
  • USD Consumer Credit (JAN): (GMT 23:50) – Medium – Forecast ($18.400b) – Previous ($18.447b).

The prices and news mentioned in this outlook are absolutely no guarantee of future market performance and do not represent the view of ICM Capital Limited. Financial markets can move in either direction causing profits to be made or complete losses to be incurred by the trader. Each trader must decide for themselves what their risk appetite is and ensure that correct risk management procedures are in place before placing any trades.

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